Foram hoje conhecidas ss 5 recomendações para Portugal da Comissão Europeia a ter em conta em 2016 e 2017. Constam do “COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION on the 2016 national reform programme of Portugal and delivering a Council opinion on the 2016 stability programme of Portugal” e reproduzimo-las mais em baixo em inglês. Em inglês são conhecidas como Country Specific Recommendations. O défice, o salário mínimo, a ativação dos desempregados de longa duração e o combate à precariedade, a limpeza dos ativos tóxicos dos balanços bancários, as Parcerias Publico Privadas e a interligação entre empresas e universidades, são os temas chave.
HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Portugal take action in 2016 and 2017 to:
1. Ensure a durable correction of the excessive deficit by 2016, reducing the general government deficit to 2.3% of GDP in 2016, by taking the necessary structural measures and by using all windfall gains for deficit and debt reduction. This is consistent with an improvement in the structural balance of 0.25% of GDP in 2016. Thereafter, achieve an annual fiscal adjustment of at least 0.6% of GDP in 2017. Conduct, by February 2017, a comprehensive expenditure review at all levels of public administration and strengthen expenditure control, cost effectiveness and adequate budgeting. Ensure the long-term sustainability of the health sector, without compromising access to primary healthcare. Reduce the reliance of the pension system on budgetary transfers. By the end of 2016, refocus ongoing restructuring plans of state-owned enterprises.
2. In consultation with social partners, ensure that minimum wages are consistent with the objectives of promoting employment and competitiveness across industries.
3. Ensure the effective activation of the long term unemployed and improve the coordination between employment and social services. Strengthen incentives for firms to hire through permanent contracts.
4. Take measures, by October 2016, to facilitate the cleaning up of the balance sheets of credit institutions and address the high level of non-performing loans. Reduce the debt bias in corporate taxation and improve the access to finance for start-ups and small and medium-sized enterprises via the capital market.
5. Increase transparency and efficiency in public procurement as regards public-private partnerships and concessions. By the end of 2016, improve and accelerate administrative and licensing procedures, accelerate tax litigations and reduce regulatory barriers, especially in business services. Incentivise cooperation between universities and the business sector
Adicionalmente, no mesmo documento, a Comissão Europeia recomenda que medidas orçamentais adicionais sejam tomadas em 2016 e 2017, contudo não contretiza nem é clara quanto à sua magnitude. Algo que a ser concretizado só o deverá ser após as eleições legislativas em Espanha. Citando:
“The structural balance is set to improve only by around 0.35% of GDP per year, below the required 0.6% of GDP, between 2016 and 2020, and the mediumterm budgetary objective – a structural surplus of 0.25 % of GDP – is not expected to be achieved within the time horizon of the programme. (…) The macroeconomic scenario underpinning these budgetary projections is rather optimistic. Moreover, the measures needed to support the planned deficit targets from 2017 onwards have not been sufficiently specified. Based on the Commission 2016 spring forecast, the general government deficit is projected to reach 2.7% of GDP in 2016, below the Treaty reference value of 3% of GDP, and 2.3% of GDP in 2017.. As the structural deficit is projected to slightly increase in 2016 and 2017, the fiscal effort is not in line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact. Moreover, Portugal is not forecast to comply with the transitional debt rule in 2017.
Based on its assessment of the stability programme and taking into account the Commission 2016 spring forecast, the Council is of the opinion that there is a risk that Portugal will not comply with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. Therefore further measures will be needed to ensure compliance in 2016 and 2017.”